Is the market favoring buyers or sellers this fall?
Snippet answer:
In the Twin Cities housing market this fall, the balance is slightly tilting toward sellers, thanks to low inventory and modest price gains—but buyers are gaining more leverage than they did in the peak seller-market years.
The current state of the Twin Cities market
As of September 2025, the metro area saw new listings in the 7-county region rise by about 5.2% year-over-year. Meanwhile, pending sales in the metro jumped approximately 7.9%. The median sales price in the Twin Cities metro region stood at roughly $390,000, up around 2.6% from the previous year.
At the same time, affordability continues to decline. Households earning 80% of area median income could afford a home priced at about $280,000 or less in 2024—down from higher thresholds in prior years.
Inventory remains tight: for the metro, months of supply hovered around 2.7 months, while statewide it was about 3.2 months.
What this means: although you’re still working in a seller-market environment given the supply constraints, conditions are beginning to soften enough that buyers are seeing more room to negotiate and compete intelligently.
What sellers should know
If you’re planning to sell your home in Eagan or the Twin Cities metro, here’s what matters:
- Good timing still matters. Because supply is limited, sellers can still benefit—but not as overwhelmingly as in the super-heated years. The seller advantage remains because supply levels were projected to remain around 2.1 months of inventory, which leans toward a seller’s market.
- Price appreciation is modest. With a median price up about 2–3% year-over-year, you’re not likely to see double-digit gains. This means you’ll want to position your listing competitively, highlight differentiators (condition, staging, terms), and still expect some buyer resistance.
- Leverage your local expertise. As the marketplace becomes a bit more balanced, timing, pricing strategy, and presentation become more impactful. A well-prepared listing can stand out and convert faster.
- Seasonal drag is real. Historically, activity slows after the spring/early summer surge. Expect some seasonal slowdown this fall and winter. That makes coming to market with an advantage in condition, pricing, and marketing even more important.
- Better leverage for conditional offers. With more buyers back in the game and a bit more inventory, sellers may see more requests for concessions, contingencies, or longer close timelines than in peak seller-market years.
What buyers should know
If you’re a buyer in the Twin Cities market this fall, you have meaningful opportunities—but you’ll also still face real constraints. Here’s your landscape:
- Interest rates and affordability remain headwinds. As rates rose in recent years, the number of homes affordable to moderate-income buyers shrank significantly. Even though inventory is improving slightly, many buyers are still facing affordability pressure.
- More listings = more choice. With new listings up around 5% year-over-year and pending sales rising, there is slightly more movement in the market. That gives you more chances to find the right home instead of being locked out entirely.
- Inventory is still low by historic standards. A roughly 2.7-month supply in the metro means you’re still looking at a tight market. Balanced markets typically run closer to 5–6 months of supply. That means you’ll want to be prepared—financing in place, realistic expectations, and quick decision-making are key.
- Negotiate smartly. This isn’t the lightning-fast bidding war era, but competitive situations still exist. Strong offers with credible financing, fair terms, and solid structure continue to win.
- Consider the trade-off of waiting. If you stay on the sidelines, home prices may continue to rise slowly, and mortgage rates may shift. For many buyers, the decision is about locking in a home that meets your goals rather than waiting for a dramatic market correction.
- Watch your segment. Market behavior varies across price points and property types. For example, the single-family market saw pending sales up about 8.5% in September. Understanding the micro-market is especially valuable.
So… Buyer or seller?
In short: the market is still favoring sellers, but less decisively than in the peak pandemic years. The supply remains constrained, giving sellers an upper hand, yet affordability challenges and increased inventory are giving buyers more negotiating room than before.
If you’re a seller who comes prepared—well priced, in great condition, strong marketing—you still have the opportunity to generate strong results. If you’re a buyer who is organized, realistic, and strategic—you’re in a better place now than you were a few years ago.
What that means for your decision
If you’re on the fence about selling:
- If your home is well-positioned and you’re ready to move, it may make sense to act now rather than push into a slower winter market.
- If you’re relocating, downsizing, or upgrading and have equity, you likely still have favorable conditions.
- However, if your home needs significant updates or your pricing is aggressive, you may face more resistance this fall than in recent years.
If you’re a buyer:
- Start with a pre-approval and know your budget—including taxes, insurance, and rates—because those factors impact affordability.
- Stay alert for new listings the minute they hit the market. With slightly more supply, your window to act is a bit wider.
- Be ready to act, but don’t overpay just because you think you must—there’s more leverage now than in the recent past.
Final takeaway
The Twin Cities housing market fall 2025 is contested ground: sellers still hold the advantage, but buyers are no longer locked out. Your success in this market comes down to preparation, realistic expectations, and strong local guidance.
If you’d like to discuss how this applies to your situation in Eagan or anywhere in the Twin Cities metro, schedule a consultation with me — Lana Kalinowski, REALTOR® with Edina Realty, serving Eagan and the Twin Cities. I’ll help you evaluate your timing, pricing, financing options, and market strategy so you can make the smartest move this season.
Call or text: 651-706-6661
This blog is powered by Lana Kalinowski, REALTOR®, Edina Realty | Serving Eagan & the Twin Cities.
